The shift from personal car ownership to shared driverless mobility won't come quickly. In a new report, Deloitte says personally-owned driver-driven cars will still have seven-eighths of the market in 2025. But Deloitte does see the shift happening eventually and almost completely. By 2050, "shared mobility" will account for 80% of the market, it says.
The consultants report back from the management suites of major car and technology companies and confirm that the shift is underway ("we have seen surprising agreement," they say). Car companies have accepted the world has changed, or will change soon, and they're showing their hand by buying, or investing heavily in, startups like Lyft and Maven (GM), Velodyne and Civil Maps (Ford) and Moovel and Car2Go (Daimler). Meanwhile, everyone from Tesla to Apple is developing autonomous cars.
"If shared and autonomous vehicles are adopted as quickly as other technologies (like smartphones, cellphones, and the Internet)," says the report, "our modeling finds that significant change will begin within five years and that the market for personal mobility could transform dramatically over the next 25 years."
Deloitte says the U.S. Department of Transport and states like Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida are advancing the shift through pilot programs (like the $140 million that just went to Columbus, Ohio) and regulatory changes. Michigan is allowing car companies to create on-demand autonomous vehicle networks, like fleets of self-driving electric Chevrolet Bolts, for example.
Deloitte points to the need for new infrastructure, like smarter tolling and platforms that enable route planning, booking, and payment across multiple modes of transit, like Daimler's Moovel. The car companies are gearing up to become players in the shared mobility market, taking on Uber and others. Ford's alternate mobility division just bought Chariot, a ride-sharing startup based in San Francisco.
"As elements of the new mobility ecosystem emerge, from car-sharing apps to self-driving vehicles, it’s hard not to speculate how advanced transportation technology might change," Deloitte says.
See more from the report here.
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