2012-12-19

Co.Exist

What The World Will Look Like In 2030--As Predicted By The Government

To help plan for the future, the intelligence community has put together a vision of what the world will look like in the next two decades. It might get a little crazy, but we’re all getting computers in our brains.

No futurists worth their salt will tell you definitively what they think the future will look like. They’ll present you with a series of scenarios, much like we’ve seen in analyses from the Forum for the Future and Institute for the Future. This report from the National Intelligence Council (the intelligence community’s strategic thinking arm) offers a range of scenarios for what 2030 will look like. But what’s really interesting is the array of new technologies--and current ones--that the government’s resident futurists think will be pervasive (or not) in less than 20 years from now.

Anarchic Social Networking

Maybe Twitter will still be around. Facebook, too. But social networking of the future will go far beyond status updates and games--it will, speculates the report, drive the adoption of alternative currencies (we’re already seeing hints of how this might happen) and lead to "human social predictive models" that can be useful in everything from counterterrorism to advertising.

Again, we’re already starting to see signals of that happening in academia. But we can’t even imagine what the popular social networks will be. The report offers a vague but not entirely unrealistic prediction: "The dominant social networks of the future may not even be formal organizations, but rather anarchic collectives built on sophisticated variants of peer-to-peer file-sharing technologies, against which developed- and many developing-world governments might have no meaningful negotiating leverage."

The Possibly Depressing State Of Solar Energy

The solar market isn’t exactly thriving now (with the exception of solar leasing companies), and the NIC doesn’t expect that to change, especially if emerging technologies keep natural gas prices down. It probably won’t happen in the immediate future, but if the government’s solar energy incentives fall by the wayside, solar may not be cost-competitive with coal and gas in the next two decades.

Your External Exoskeleton

Want to remain spry by the time you turn 90? No problem! NIC imagines that elderly in the future will wear "powered exoskeletons" that help them with daily activities. Bonus: "Brain-machine interfaces could provide 'superhuman’ abilities, enhancing strength and speed, as well as providing functions not previously available." So-called "neuro-enhancements" could boost your memory and how quickly you think, while retinal eye implants might give you enhanced night vision. This isn’t entirely new--the military is already working on exoskeletons for soldiers, and brain-machine interfaces are currently being tested on people with paralysis.

One disturbing aspect of the NIC’s body-enhanced future is the issue of cost, which could for decades lead to a divide between the wealthier augmented classes and the non-augmented classes that lack superhuman abilities. And just pray that no one figures out how to hack that interface attached to your brain.

Personalized Medicine For Everyone

Today, personalized medicine is limited to patients with hard-to-treat and deadly diseases. Not so in the future, when genetic sequencing will continue to drop in cost. The NIC speculates: "Molecular diagnostic devices will revolutionize medicine by providing a rapid means of testing for both genetic and pathogenic diseases during surgeries. Readily available genetic testing will hasten disease diagnosis and help physicians decide on the optimal treatment for each patient." Once you have an accurate portrait of your disease, doctors will have new tools to treat thanks to advances in synthetic biology. By 2030, NIC predicts that replacement organs like livers and kidneys could be developed. Artificial kidneys are, however, already in the works.

The NIC report goes far beyond these predictions, looking at all the alternative worlds that might be possible, demographic patterns, regional instability, and more. Take it all with a grain of salt--any of the "black swan" events mentioned by the report (solar flares, sped up climate change, etc.) could throw every single one of these predictions off balance.

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4 Comments

  • Craig Bunting

    NIC' s predictions regarding solar energy is completely wrong. Energy will be grid free in the next two decades. Extreme weather patterns, storms and homesteader mentalities will have autonomous, off the grid storage capacity for  millions of users. PV cells will be thin, cheap and plastic stick- ons producing energy everywhere we go. Breaking the energy monopolies will be front and center in the minds of the green generation. I know, we've  nearly there at our homes. Coal and gas are dead, if not

  • Son of Freedom

    The more I see of the future, the more the early 1800's U.S. looks good.  Sparse population, little pollution, no big corporate business, and a very non-invasive government.  Life was hard, but you controlled your own destiny.  What's not to like?

  • GADzooks32

    Interesting and I know this is all speculation, but how can anyone say that coal/gas will be cost competitive with any new, less carbon intensive sources by 2030?
    I guess I'm just letting my optimistic opinions bias me